Brace Yourselves As Hurricane Kamala Heads Toward Florida This November

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), hurricane season runs from June through the end of November. And although tropical storms are hard to predict months or even weeks out, this year there is one storm that will very likely engulf the entirety of Florida precisely at midnight on the morning of Nov. 5: Hurricane Kamala—a confluence of gales and squalls that are putting the Harris-Walz ticket in position to snatch the Sunshine State right from under former President Donald Trump’s nose—a peripeteia of monumental proportions.
An eventual Harris victory in Florida this November, however, will not look at all like the last two times Democrats carried the state with former President Barack Obama on the ticket in 2008 and 2012. Should Harris win Florida in this go-around, it will be in large part because her campaign adroitly rode the reverse coattails of local ballot initiatives on access to abortion and the legalization of recreational marijuana as well as a hotly contested Senate race—all of which are poised to drive voter turnout in record numbers.
Hurricane Kamala aptly describes the confluence of storm systems combining this fall that will finally upend the reigning narrative that Florida is a GOP stronghold that Democrats should just write off. And with the Sunshine State’s 30 electoral votes at stake, it’s a weather pattern that could dictate not only the contours of the national election but shift the power dynamic in Washington for an entire generation to come.
Newsweek spoke to Democratic political strategist James Carville, the architect of Bill Clinton’s historic 1992 presidential run, about his party’s chances in Florida this November.
“Yes, Kamala [Harris] and [Tim] Walz have animated the Democratic base, but Florida is really in play due to a number of other factors—mainly because of the weed voters, even more so than the abortion question. Ballot initiatives in favor of legalizing marijuana across the nation bring out voters in droves and while not all of them vote ‘D,’ the lion’s share tend to be more progressive and that could tip the scales,” said Carville. “It’s not a lock—at least not yet—but [Florida] is definitely winnable.”
In alluding to the brisk political crosswinds blowing across the state, Carville believed that local issues in Florida—issues that exist somewhat independent from the dynamics of the national election—might prove decisive in the aggregate, helping deliver a victory for the Harris-Walz ticket.
The following are three key local issues dominating Florida’s political landscape this November—all of which likely play right into the Harris campaign’s hands.
—Cannabis: It’s a bit of a canard to believe that the vast majority of voters in favor of the legalization of recreational marijuana vote Democratic, but there is no doubt that, across the nation, the issue stokes turnout among “inactive” or “irregular” voters who tend to skew younger and more progressive. Polling indicated that the Florida ballot measure, known officially as Amendment III, is very likely to pass, and with that, hundreds of thousands of voters that haven’t showed up in past elections pulling the lever for Harris.
—Reproductive Rights: Like the marijuana issue, enshrining a women’s right to choose is another ballot initiative that will up the ante and drive turnout—particularly among women voters in Florida’s election this year. The issue, known as Amendment IV, needs 60 percent approval to pass, and is a direct outcome of the Florida State Supreme Court’s ruling that banned all abortions after six-weeks.
—Hot Senate Race: According to polls, Floridians are growing tired of Senator Rick Scott, a former health care executive who served two terms as governor before winning his Senate seat in 2018. As a staunch pro-lifer, his views are directly at odds with the abortion access question that is motivating turnout on Amendment IV, and he has his hands full with the Ecuadorian-born and former U.S. congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who has saddled Scott with many of the state’s increasingly unpopular and repressive policies, likening the junior Senator to Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.
Florida’s Democratic base is enthused about Kamala Harris’ historic nature—potentially the first woman and woman of color to be elected president; it’s certainly a motivating factor that should drive turnout among women and minorities. But with Florida Republicans holding a sizable home court advantage in voter rolls, Hurricane Harris is going to need more than that. She will need a storm system that includes other issues that will drive sympathetic voters to the polls who wouldn’t likely come out just to vote for Harris but will gladly lend her their support once they’re in the voting booth.
And this is good news for Harris, who just may get the weather forecast she needs to win.
Arick Wierson is a six-time Emmy Award-winning television producer and served as a senior media and political adviser to former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He advises corporate clients on communications strategies in the United States, Africa, and Latin America.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.